17 March 2015


  • The main cause of our population increase, by far, has been mass migration.
  • Official population estimates and projections underestimate the impact of net migration because they ignore children born to migrants who are already here in the UK.
  • If the latter are included then, since 2000, 85% of our population growth has been due to immigration. This figure, in future, will be even higher – reaching 100% in about 2040[i].
  • The UK Population is currently estimated at around 64.5 million.
  • Net migration has averaged 238,000 over the past ten years and currently stands at 298,000 (year ending September 2014).
  • If net migration continues at this level the population will increase by 3 million over the course of the next Parliament (from 65 million to 68 million) – three new cities the size of Birmingham during this period.[ii]
  • By 2040 all our population growth will be the result of immigration. The UK birth rate, currently at 1.83 is below the replacement rate of 2.1



17th March 2015

[i] Migration Watch UK http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/15.3

[ii] Derived from 2012 Office of National Statistics population projections, using a net migration scenario of 298,000 a year http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2012-based-projections/index.html